Professor Jia Qingguo, Peking University talks to the NCAFP about Asia-Pacific relations in 2014

Professor Jia Qingguo, Peking University talks to the NCAFP about Asia-Pacific relations in 2014

Professor Jia Qingguo, Peking University talks to the NCAFP about Asia-Pacific relations in 2014

Jia Qinggou

What are the greatest opportunities for US-China Relations in 2014?

The greatest opportunities for US-China relations in 2014 include China's decision to launch a new round of domestic reforms, resumption of growth of the US economy, and determination of the leaders of both countries to develop a new type of great power relations. Both Chinese reforms and US economic growth promise greater opportunities for developing closer and mutually beneficial economic relations. The determination of leaders of both countries to develop a new type of great power relations increases the chances for the two countries to manage differences and promote cooperation. Specifically, the US and China may be able to speed up negotiations of a bilateral investment treaty, work more closely on North Korea denuclearization, make greater efforts to introduce order in cyberspace, and increase cooperation over climate change.

How do Japan and China move on from current tensions that have risen over the last several months? 

Both China and Japan should refrain from taking further actions that may escalate tension between the two countries. They should reduce the number of ships and planes they send to the areas near the Diaoyu Islands. Japan should also seriously consider encouraging its Prime Minister not to visit the Yasukuni Shrine. Additionally, Japan should contemplate recognizing the Diaoyu Islands as disputed territories so that the two countries can begin negotiations and manage the dispute. China should tone down its rhetoric and prepare to resume official contacts with Japan when conditions are ripe. Finally, both countries should encourage Track II dialogues to explore ways to lower tension in the East China Sea and take pragmatic steps to get the relationship between the two countries back on track.

What are the greatest challenges for US-China Relations in 2014? 

The greatest challenge for China-US relations in 2014 is how to avoid conflict and increase trust between the two countries. This includes exploring pragmatic ways to manage issues that may bring the two countries into conflict such as the China-Japan dispute over the Diaoyu Island and maritime interests in the East China Sea, disputes over territorial claims and maritime interests in the South China Sea, and cyber security. It also includes making greater efforts to increase military exchanges, encourage North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program, and engage in cooperation to maintain regional and global order, peace and stability.

What is your perspective on recent developments, particularly the purge, in North Korea?

The recent developments in North Korea appear to suggest the following: North Korea is undergoing some intense internal political convulsion and there is an increased chance for a major crisis. Second, the likelihood for North Korea to undertake a successful Chinese-style reform remains quite remote. Finally, the international community, especially North Korea’s neighbors and the US, need to consult with each other on contingency plans in order to prepare for a possible crisis in North Korea.

Jia Qingguo is Professor and Associate Dean of the School of International Studies of Peking University. He was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution between 1985 and 1986, a visiting professor at the University of Vienna in 1997 and a CNAPS fellow at the Brookings Institution between 2001 and 2002. Jia Qingguo is a member of the Standing Committee and the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and a member of the Standing Committee of the Central Committee of the China Democratic League. He is also the Vice President of the Chinese American Studies Association and board member of the China National Taiwan Studies Association. He is serving on the editorial board of several established domestic and international academic journals. He has published extensively on U.S.-China relations, relations between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan, Chinese foreign policy and Chinese politics.

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