On March 10, 2023, China brokered an agreement between two long regional rivalries, Iran and Saudi Arabia, restoring diplomatic relations that were severed in 2016. Both Iranian and Saudi foreign ministers who met in Beijing had promised to increase the “scope of co-operation, and contribute to achieving security, stability and prosperity in the region.” This comes three years after the Abraham Accords when President Trump’s Senior White House Advisor, Jared Kushner, helped to normalize relations among Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco, a policy that won him a nomination for the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize.

Will normalized relations between Tehran and Riyad establish stability in Yemen and Syria, two war-torn countries caught in proxy and civil conflicts? Is this an end to Iran’s isolation in the region and the world, and therefore U.S.-led influence? If so, how might Israel reframe a new security architecture in the region?

While some critics have questioned China’s genuine intentions for either party, others have praised the prospects of budding rapprochement for Tehran and Riyad.  What allowed China, a unique actor in the diplomatic space, the ability to negotiate the deal?  Was it to bring stability and cooperation; or as skeptics ask, was it a direct challenge to U.S.-led policy and involvement that has defined the region for decades? What is next for American foreign policy in the Middle East?